Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western United States

被引：848

作者：

Barnett, Tim P. ^{[1
]}

Pierce, David W. ^{[1
]}

Hidalgo, Hugo G. ^{[1
]}

Bonfils, Celine ^{[2
]}

Santer, Benjamin D. ^{[2
]}

Das, Tapash ^{[1
]}

Bala, Govindasamy ^{[2
]}

Wood, Andrew W. ^{[3
]}

Nozawa, Toru ^{[4
]}

Mirin, Arthur A. ^{[2
]}

Cayan, Daniel R. ^{[1
,5
]}

Dettinger, Michael D. ^{[1
,5
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA

[2] Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Livermore, CA 94550 USA

[3] Univ Washington, Land Surface Hydrol Res Grp, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

[4] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan

[5] US Geol Survey, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA

来源：

SCIENCE | 2008年 / 319卷 / 5866期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1126/science.1152538

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Observations have shown that the hydrological cycle of the western United States changed significantly over the last half of the 20th century. We present a regional, multivariable climate change detection and attribution study, using a high- resolution hydrologic model forced by global climate models, focusing on the changes that have already affected this primarily arid region with a large and growing population. The results show that up to 60% of the climate- related trends of river flow, winter air temperature, and snow pack between 1950 and 1999 are human- induced. These results are robust to perturbation of study variates and methods. They portend, in conjunction with previous work, a coming crisis in water supply for the western United States.

引用

页码：1080 / 1083

页数：4

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