Demographically based global income forecasts up to the year 2050

被引：20

作者：

Lindh, Thomas ^{[1
]}

Malmberg, Bo ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Inst Futures Studies, SE-10131 Stockholm, Sweden

来源：

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING | 2007年 / 23卷 / 04期

关键词：

long-term forecasting; panel data; life expectancy; catch-up; age effects; HUMAN-CAPITAL INVESTMENT; ECONOMIC-GROWTH; MORTALITY DECLINE; ENDOGENOUS GROWTH; LIFE EXPECTANCY; POPULATION; FERTILITY; SAVINGS; DEPENDENCY; COUNTRIES;

D O I：

10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.07.005

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

Demographic projections of age structure provide the best information available on long-term future human resources and demand. Fairly robust correlations between age structure, GDP and GDP growth have been discovered in current data. In this paper we use these two facts to study the forecasting properties of demographically based models. Extending the forecasts to 2050 suggests that, due to projected fertility decreases, the poor countries of today will start to catch up with developed economies, in which the growth process will stagnate due to the growth of the elderly population. This remains the case whether or not indications of positive longevity effects are taken into account. (c) 2007 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：553 / 567

页数：15

共 35 条

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