Quantification of deviations from rationality with heavy tails in human dynamics

被引:23
作者
Maillart, T. [1 ]
Sornette, D. [1 ]
Frei, S. [2 ]
Duebendorfer, T. [3 ]
Saichev, A. [1 ]
机构
[1] Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Dept Management Technol & Econ, CH-8032 Zurich, Switzerland
[2] Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Comp Engn & Networks Lab TIK, CH-8001 Zurich, Switzerland
[3] Google Switzerland GmbH, CH-8002 Zurich, Switzerland
来源
PHYSICAL REVIEW E | 2011年 / 83卷 / 05期
关键词
D O I
10.1103/PhysRevE.83.056101
中图分类号
O35 [流体力学]; O53 [等离子体物理学];
学科分类号
070204 ; 080103 ; 080704 ;
摘要
The dynamics of technological, economic and social phenomena is controlled by how humans organize their daily tasks in response to both endogenous and exogenous stimulations. Queueing theory is believed to provide a generic answer to account for the often observed power-law distributions of waiting times before a task is fulfilled. However, the general validity of the power law and the nature of other regimes remain unsettled. Using anonymized data collected by Google at the World Wide Web level, we identify the existence of several additional regimes characterizing the time required for a population of Internet users to execute a given task after receiving a message. Depending on the under-or over-utilization of time by the population of users and the strength of their response to perturbations, the pure power law is found to be coextensive with an exponential regime (tasks are performed without too much delay) and with a crossover to an asymptotic plateau (some tasks are never performed).
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页数:7
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