Potential impact of climate change on ecosystems of the Barents Sea Region

被引：33

作者：

Roderfeld, Hedwig ^{[1
]}

Blyth, Eleanor ^{[2
]}

Dankers, Rutger ^{[3
]}

Huse, Geir ^{[4
]}

Slagstad, Dag ^{[5
]}

Ellingsen, Ingrid ^{[5
]}

Wolf, Annett ^{[6
]}

Lange, Manfred A. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Munster, Inst Geophys, D-48149 Munster, Germany

[2] Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Wallingford OX10 8BB, Oxon, England

[3] Commiss European Communities, Joint Res Ctr, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, I-21020 Ispra, Italy

[4] Inst Marine Res, N-5817 Bergen, Norway

[5] SINTEF Fisheries & Aquaculture, N-465 Trondheim, Norway

[6] ETH Zentrum, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland

来源：

CLIMATIC CHANGE | 2008年 / 87卷 / 1-2期

基金：

英国自然环境研究理事会;

关键词：

D O I：

10.1007/s10584-007-9350-4

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

The EU project BALANCE (Global Change Vulnerabilities in the Barents region: Linking Arctic Natural Resources, Climate Change and Economies) aims to assess vulnerability to climate change in the Barents Sea Region. As a prerequisite the potential impact of climate change on selected ecosystems of the study area has to be quantified, which is the subject of the present paper. A set of ecosystem models was run to generate baseline and future scenarios for 1990, 2020, 2050 and 2080. The models are based on data from the Regional Climate Model (REMO), driven by a GCM which in turn is forced by the IPCC-B2 scenario. The climate change is documented by means of the Koppen climate classification. Since the multitude of models requires the effect of climate change on individual terrestrial and marine systems to be integrated, the paper concentrates on a standardised visualisation of potential impacts by use of a Geographical Information System for the timeslices 2050 and 2080. The resulting maps show that both terrestrial and marine ecosystems of the Barents region will undergo significant changes until both 2050 and 2080.

引用

页码：283 / 303

页数：21

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