Cases for the nugget in modeling computer experiments

被引:197
作者
Gramacy, Robert B. [1 ]
Lee, Herbert K. H. [2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Chicago, Booth Sch Business, Chicago, IL 60637 USA
[2] Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA
基金
英国工程与自然科学研究理事会; 美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
Computer simulator; Surrogate model; Gaussian process; Interpolation; Smoothing; SIMULATION; CALIBRATION; EMULATION; DESIGN;
D O I
10.1007/s11222-010-9224-x
中图分类号
TP301 [理论、方法];
学科分类号
080201 [机械制造及其自动化];
摘要
Most surrogate models for computer experiments are interpolators, and the most common interpolator is a Gaussian process (GP) that deliberately omits a small-scale (measurement) error term called the nugget. The explanation is that computer experiments are, by definition, "deterministic", and so there is no measurement error. We think this is too narrow a focus for a computer experiment and a statistically inefficient way to model them. We show that estimating a (non-zero) nugget can lead to surrogate models with better statistical properties, such as predictive accuracy and coverage, in a variety of common situations.
引用
收藏
页码:713 / 722
页数:10
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