MODELING THE NILE BASIN UNDER CLIMATIC CHANGE

被引：78

作者：

Yates, David N. ^{[1
]}

Strzepek, Kenneth M. ^{[2
,3
]}

机构：

[1] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80307 USA

[2] Univ Colorado, Dept Civ Engrg & Envir, Boulder, CO 80309 USA

[3] Univ Colorado, Behav Program, Boulder, CO 80309 USA

来源：

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGIC ENGINEERING | 1998年 / 3卷 / 02期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1061/(ASCE)1084-0699(1998)3:2(98)

中图分类号：

TU [建筑科学];

学科分类号：

0813 ;

摘要：

This paper presents the development and application of a monthly water balance model of the Nile River basin (WBNILE) for assessing potential climatic change impacts on Nile runoff. The WBNILE model consists of 12 Nile subcatchments, including characterization of the lakes region of equatorial Africa and the Sudd swamp. The model uses mean monthly climate variables of precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, and sunshine hours, and each basin is calibrated from observed monthly averaged discharge. Areally averaged temperature and precipitation changes from five global circulation models (GCMs) were imposed on each sub-basin for assessing climate change impacts on runoff. Results showed the sensitivity of the basin to climate fluctuations, because four of five GCMs predicted significantly larger flows in equatorial Africa and the expansion of the Sudd swamps, whereas there was a range of results for the Ethiopian highlands of the Blue Nile and Atbara basins depending on the GCM scenario.

引用

页码：98 / 108

页数：11