Non-valvularatrial fibrillation and completed stroke:: Factors determining mortality recurrence and prognosis after a first event in the Mexican population

Aims. Non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) accounts for 25% of completed strokes (CS) of a cardioembolic origin in patients over 60 years old. Our aim was to define the predictors of a good and poor prognosis after a CS secondary to an NVAF in our milieu. Patients and methods. We evaluated the risk factors (RF) and severity of CS in relation to death, functionality and recurrence at 5 years. 81 patients between the ages of 49 and 88 were followed up consecutively for 1 to 90 months; 38 (46.9%) of them were males. Multivariate analysis was performed with the following independent variables: age, gender smoking, hypertension, heart disease, diabetes mellitus and characteristics of the stroke. The severity of the CS was assessed by means of the modified Rankin scale, which was dichotomised into a good prognosis (0-2) and a poor prognosis (>= 3), both basal and at the end of the clinical control. We also evaluated the secondary preventive treatment used and its relation with recurrence, prognosis, death and complications. Results. No RF was linked to a poor prognosis or recurrence; 88% had a poor prognosis. Antiplatelet drugs were used in 42% of cases and 39% received anticoagulants. A good final progression was observed in 9.5% of the patients treated with antiplatelet drugs versus 35% of those receiving anticoagulation therapy (p = 0.004). Severity of the CS oil admission was worse in the aspirin group, with no differences in recurrence and mortality. A better prognosis was observed in patients from urban areas. Conclusions. Use of antiplatelet drugs, living in a rural area and a Rankin score of >= 3 oil admission are factors suggesting a poor prognosis in the clinical control at 5 years.