Prediction of landfalling hurricanes with the Advanced Hurricane WRF model

被引:439
作者
Davis, Christopher [1 ]
Wang, Wei [1 ]
Chen, Shuyi S. [2 ]
Chen, Yongsheng [1 ]
Corbosiero, Kristen [3 ]
DeMaria, Mark [4 ]
Dudhia, Jimy [1 ]
Holland, Greg [1 ]
Klemp, Joe [1 ]
Michalakes, John [1 ]
Reeves, Heather [5 ]
Rotunno, Richard [1 ]
Snyder, Chris [1 ]
Xiao, Qingnong [1 ]
机构
[1] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Boulder, CO 80307 USA
[2] Univ Miami, Rosenstiel Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Miami, FL 33149 USA
[3] Univ Calif Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA USA
[4] NOAA NESDIS, Ft Collins, CO USA
[5] Natl Severe Storms Lab, Norman, OK 73069 USA
关键词
D O I
10.1175/2007MWR2085.1
中图分类号
P4 [大气科学(气象学)];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要
Real-time forecasts of five landfalling Atlantic hurricanes during 2005 using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) (ARW) Model at grid spacings of 12 and 4 km revealed performance generally competitive with, and occasionally superior to, other operational forecasts for storm position and intensity. Recurring errors include 1) excessive intensification prior to landfall, 2) insufficient momentum exchange with the surface, and 3) inability to capture rapid intensification when observed. To address these errors several augmentations of the basic community model have been designed and tested as part of what is termed the Advanced Hurricane WRF (AHW) model. Based on sensitivity simulations of Katrina, the inner-core structure, particularly the size of the eye, was found to be sensitive to model resolution and surface momentum exchange. The forecast of rapid intensification and the structure of convective bands in Katrina were not significantly improved until the grid spacing approached 1 km. Coupling the atmospheric model to a columnar, mixed layer ocean model eliminated much of the erroneous intensification of Katrina prior to landfall noted in the real-time forecast.
引用
收藏
页码:1990 / 2005
页数:16
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