A comparison of methods for predicting vegetation type

Predictive modeling of vegetation patterns has wide application in vegetation science. In this paper I discuss three methods of predictive modeling using data from the alpine treeline ecotone as a case study. The study area is a portion of Glacier National Park, Montana. Parametric general linear models (GLM), artificial neural networks (ANN) and classification tree (CT) methods of predicting vegetation type are compared to determine the relative strength of each predictive approach and how they may be used in concert to increase understanding of important vegetation - environment relations. For each predictive method, vegetation type within the alpine treeline ecotone is predicted using a suite of environmental indicator variables including elevation, moisture potential, solar radiation potential, snow potential index, and disturbance history. Results from each of the predictive methods are compared against the real vegetation types to determine the relative accuracy of the methods. When the entire data field is examined (i.e., not evaluated by smaller spatial aggregates of data) the ANN procedure produces the most accurate predictions (kappa =0.571); the CT predictions are the least accurate (kappa =0.351). The predicted patterns of vegetation on the landscape are considerably different using the three methods. The GLM and CT methods produce large contiguous swaths of vegetation types throughout the study area, whereas the ANN method produces patterns with much more heterogeneity and smaller patches. When predictions are compared to reality at catchment scale, it becomes evident that the accuracy of each method varies depending upon the specific situation. The ANN procedure remains the most accurate method in the majority of the catchments, but both the GLM and PCT produce the most accurate classifications in at least one basin each. The variability in predictive ability of the three methods tested here indicates that there may not be a single best predictive method. Rather it may be important to use a suite of predictive models to help understand the environment - vegetation relationships. The ability to use multiple predictive methods to determine which spatial subunits of a landscape are outliers is important when identifying locations useful for climate change monitoring studies.