Inverse modelling of trophic flows through an entire ecosystem:: the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence in the mid-1980s

Mass-balance models using inverse methodology have been constructed for the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence ecosystem in the mid-1980s, before the groundfish collapse. The results highlight the effects of the major mortality sources (fishing, predation, and other sources of mortality) on the fish and invertebrate communities. Main predators of fish were large cod (Gadus morhua) followed by redfish (Sebastes spp.), capelin (Mallotus villosus), and fisheries. Large cod were the most important predator of small cod, with cannibalism accounting for at least 44% of the mortality of small cod. The main predators of large cod were harp (Phoca groenlandica) and grey (Halichoerus grypus) seals. However, predation represented only 2% of total mortality on large cod. Mortality other than predation dominated the mortality processes at 52% of the total, while the fishery represented 46%. Tests were performed to identify possible sources of this unexplained mortality. The only way to significantly reduce unexplained mortality on large cod in the model was to increase landings of large cod above those reported. This suggests that fishing mortality was substantially underestimated in the mid-1980s, just before the demise of a cod stock that historically was the second largest in the northwest Atlantic.