Climatic suitability for malaria transmission in Africa, 1911-1995

被引：71

作者：

Small, J

Goetz, SJ

Hay, SI

机构：

[1] Univ Maryland, Dept Geog, College Pk, MD 20742 USA

[2] Woods Hole Res Ctr, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA

[3] Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Trypanosomiasis & Land Use Africa Res Grp, Oxford OX1 3PS, England

[4] Kenya Govt Med Res Ctr, Wellcome Trust Collaborat Programme, Nairobi 00100, GPO, Kenya

来源：

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | 2003年 / 100卷 / 26期

基金：

英国惠康基金;

关键词：

D O I：

10.1073/pnas.2236969100

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Time series analysis of a climate-driven model of malaria transmission shows limited evidence for an increase in suitability during the last century across Africa. Outside areas where climate was always or never suitable, <17% of the continent showed significant trends in malaria transmission. Of these areas, 5.7% showed positive deterministic trends, 6.1% had negative deterministic trends, and 5.1% exhibited stochastic trends. in areas with positive trends, precipitation, rather than temperature, was the primary forcing variable. This analysis highlights the need to examine the relationship between climate and malaria more closely and to fully consider nonclimatic factors as drivers of increased malaria transmission across the continent.

引用

页码：15341 / 15345

页数：5

共 34 条

[31] Meteorologic influences on Plasmodium falciparum malaria in the highland tea estates of Kericho, western Kenya [J].