Implications of Rural-Urban Migration for Conservation of the Atlantic Forest and Urban Growth in Misiones, Argentina (1970-2030)

被引:37
作者
Izquierdo, Andrea E. [1 ,2 ]
Grau, Hector R. [1 ,2 ]
Aide, T. Mitchell [3 ]
机构
[1] Consejo Nacl Invest Cient & Tecn, RA-1033 Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina
[2] Univ Nacl Tucuman, IER, RA-4107 San Miguel De Tucuman, Argentina
[3] Univ Puerto Rico, RA-00931 Puerto Rico, Argentina
关键词
Globalization; Human demography; Deforestation; Landscape planning; Subtropical Argentina; STELLA; DEFORESTATION; FRAGMENTATION; ENVIRONMENT; TRANSITION; HABITAT; BIOME;
D O I
10.1007/s13280-010-0095-3
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Global trends of increasing rural-urban migration and population urbanization could provide opportunities for nature conservation, particularly in regions where deforestation is driven by subsistence agriculture. We analyzed the role of rural population as a driver of deforestation and its contribution to urban population growth from 1970 to the present in the Atlantic Forest of Argentina, a global conservation priority. We created future land-use-cover scenarios based on human demographic parameters and the relationship between rural population and land-cover change between 1970 and 2006. In 2006, native forest covered 50% of the province, but by 2030 all scenarios predicted a decrease that ranged from 18 to 39% forest cover. Between 1970 and 2001, rural migrants represented 20% of urban population growth and are expected to represent less than 10% by 2030. This modeling approach shows how rural-urban migration and land-use planning can favor nature conservation with little impact on urban areas.
引用
收藏
页码:298 / 309
页数:12
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