Errors associated with metabolic control analysis. Application of Monte-Carlo simulation of experimental data

The errors associated with experimental application of metabolic control analysis are difficult to assess. In this paper, we give examples where Monte-Carlo simulations of published experimental data are used in error analysis. Data was simulated according to the mean and error obtained from experimental measurements and the simulated data was used to calculate control coefficients. Repeating the simulation 500 times allowed an estimate to be made of the error implicit in the calculated control coefficients. In the first example, state 4 respiration of isolated mitochondria, Monte-Carlo simulations based on the system elasticities were performed. The simulations gave error estimates similar to the values reported within the original paper and those derived from a sensitivity analysis of the elasticities. This demonstrated the validity of the method. In the second example, state 3 respiration of isolated mitochondria, Monte-Carlo simulations were based on measurements of intermediates and fluxes. A key feature of this simulation was that the distribution of the simulated control coefficients did not follow a normal distribution, despite simulation of the original data being based on normal distributions. Consequently, the error calculated using simulation was greater and more realistic than the error calculated directly by averaging the original results. The Monte-Carlo simulations are also demonstrated to be useful in experimental design. The individual data points that should be repeated in order to reduce the error in the control coefficients can be highlighted. (C) 1998 Academic Press.