The effect of statistical uncertainty on inverse treatment planning based on Monte Carlo dose calculation

The effect of the statistical uncertainty, or noise, in inverse treatment planning for intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) based on Monte Carlo dose calculation was studied. Sets of Monte Carlo beamlets were calculated to give uncertainties at D-max ranging from 0.2% to 4% for a lung tumour plan. The weights of these beamlets were optimized using a previously described procedure based on a simulated annealing optimization algorithm. Several different objective functions were used. It was determined that the use of Monte Carlo dose calculation in inverse treatment planning introduces two errors in the calculated plan. In addition to the statistical error due to the statistical uncertainty of the Monte Carlo calculation, a noise convergence error also appears. For the statistical error it was determined that apparently successfully optimized plans with a noisy dose calculation (3% 1 sigma at D-max), which satisfied the required uniformity of the dose within the tumour, showed as much as 7% underdose when recalculated with a noise-free dose calculation. The statistical error is larger towards the tumour and is only weakly dependent on the choice of objective function. The noise convergence error appears because the optimum weights are determined using a noisy calculation, which is different from the optimum weights determined for a noise-free calculation. Unlike the statistical error, the noise convergence error is generally larger outside the tumour, is case dependent and strongly depends on the required objectives.