The US Social Security System: What Does Political Sustainability Imply?

被引：20

作者：

Galasso, Vincenzo ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Carlos III Madrid, Dept Econ, Calle Madrid 126, E-28903 Getafe, Spain

[2] CEPR, Madrid, Spain

来源：

REVIEW OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS | 1999年 / 2卷 / 03期

关键词：

unfunded social security system; political equilibria; labor productivity;

D O I：

10.1006/redy.1998.0049

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This paper examines how political constraints can shape the social security system under different demographics. A steady-state mapping between relevant economic and demographic variables and the social security tax rate resulting from a majority voting is provided. I calibrate an OLG model to the U.S. economy. Calculations using census population and survival probabilities projections and 1961-96 labor productivity growth deliver a social security tax rate of 13.3% (currently 11.2%) and a 54% replacement ratio (51.7%). This result reflects the median voter's aging, from 44 to 46 years, which dominates the decrease in the dependency ratio, from 5.45 to 4.72. (C) 1999 Academic Press

引用

页码：698 / 730

页数：33