The value of simple models in new product forecasting and customer-base analysis

In this paper, we develop the idea of a 'simple model'-defined as one that a good business student can build and implement on his/her notebook PC using readily available software. We explore how such models have the potential to bridge the gap between what marketing academics create and what marketing managers seek in a model. We provide specific examples from the areas of new product sales forecasting and customer-base analysis, using spreadsheet-based models that provide good forecasts and insights about actual buyer behaviour. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.