Can it be predicted which patients with chronic low back pain should be offered tertiary rehabilitation in a functional restoration program?: A search for demographic, socioeconomic, and physical predictors

Study Design. A prospective clinical trial was conducted that involved six groups of patients with chronic low back pain selected from a large cohort (N = 816). Objectives. To correlate pretreatment baseline variables with outcome parameters after treatment a functional restoration program or in control programs, to identify possible factors predictive of the need for functional restoration. Summary of Background Data. Since the functional restoration program was first described, research has focused on identifying patients who will or will not benefit such a program. The value of previous studies is limited, however, because predictive factors from a control group were not "subtracted." Methods. Eight hundred sixteen patients with chronic low back disability were included. All had a structured medical examination, including various physical tests before participation in either a functional restoration program (n = 621) or shorter "control" outpatient programs (n = 144). A smaller group of the cohort (n = 51) had no treatment and served as a pure control group. Six groups were selected from the cohort: Three underwent an identical functional restoration program and three underwent different outpatient control programs. Several baseline demographic, physical, and socioeconomic variables were correlated to 1-year outcome parameters. Results. Age, days of sick leave, connection to the work force, and back pain intensity, were significantly correlated to success 1 year after entry into the study in all groups, no matter what kind of treatment was administered. Back muscle endurance, sports activity, activity of daily living scores, and vibrations were of importance in some outcome parameters for success after functional restoration. Smoking was positively correlated to disability pension. Days of sick leave and, in functional restoration, ability to work were the only factors that were correlative with statistics for people who withdrew. Conclusions. Different factors can be identified as predictive of outcome in a functional restoration program, but most of these factors were also shown to predict success for shorter control outpatient programs or of no treatment.