A behavioural model for vague probability assessments

被引：45

作者：

de Cooman, G ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Ghent, SYSTeMS Res Grp, B-9052 Zwijnaarde, Belgium

来源：

FUZZY SETS AND SYSTEMS | 2005年 / 154卷 / 03期

关键词：

fuzzy probability; probability assessments; imprecise probabilities; vagueness; second-order model; coherence; inference; decision-making;

D O I：

10.1016/j.fss.2005.01.005

中图分类号：

TP301 [理论、方法];

学科分类号：

081202 ;

摘要：

I present an hierarchical uncertainty model that is able to represent vague probability assessments, and to make inferences based on them. This model can be given an interpretation in terms of the behaviour of a modeller in the face of uncertainty, and is based on Walley's theory of imprecise probabilities. It is formally closely related to Zadeh's fuzzy probabilities, but it has a different interpretation, and a different calculus. Through rationality (coherence) arguments, the hierarchical model is shown to lead to an imprecise first-order uncertainty model that can be used in decision making, and as a prior in statistical reasoning. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier B.V.

引用

页码：305 / 358

页数：54

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