Projections of UV radiation changes in the 21st century: impact of ozone recovery and cloud effects

被引：67

作者：

Bais, A. F. ^{[1
]}

Tourpali, K. ^{[1
]}

Kazantzidis, A. ^{[2
]}

Akiyoshi, H. ^{[3
]}

Bekki, S. ^{[4
]}

Braesicke, P. ^{[5
]}

Chipperfield, M. P. ^{[6
]}

Dameris, M. ^{[7
]}

Eyring, V. ^{[7
]}

Garny, H. ^{[7
]}

Iachetti, D. ^{[8
]}

Joeckel, P. ^{[7
]}

Kubin, A. ^{[9
]}

Langematz, U. ^{[9
]}

Mancini, E. ^{[8
]}

Michou, M. ^{[10
]}

Morgenstern, O. ^{[11
]}

Nakamura, T.

Newman, P. A. ^{[12
]}

Pitari, G. ^{[8
]}

Plummer, D. A. ^{[13
]}

Rozanov, E. ^{[14
,15
]}

Shepherd, T. G. ^{[16
]}

Shibata, K. ^{[17
]}

Tian, W. ^{[6
]}

Yamashita, Y. ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Aristotle Univ Thessaloniki, Dept Phys, GR-54006 Thessaloniki, Greece

[2] Univ Patras, Dept Phys, GR-26110 Patras, Greece

[3] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

[4] Inst Pierre Simone Laplace, Serv Aeron, Paris, France

[5] Univ Cambridge, Dept Chem, Cambridge CB2 1EW, England

[6] Univ Leeds, Inst Climate & Atmospher Sci, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England

[7] Deutsch Zentrum Luft & Raumfahrt, Inst Atmosphare Phys, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany

[8] Univ Aquila, Dipartimento Fis, I-67100 Laquila, Italy

[9] Free Univ Berlin, Inst Meteorol, D-1000 Berlin, Germany

[10] GAME CNRM, Meteo France CNRS, Toulouse, France

[11] Natl Inst Water & Atmospher Res, Lauder, New Zealand

[12] NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Greenbelt, MD 20771 USA

[13] Environm Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada

[14] Phys Meteorol Observ, Davos World Rad Ctr, Davos, Switzerland

[15] ETH, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland

[16] Univ Toronto, Dept Phys, Toronto, ON, Canada

[17] Met Res Inst, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

来源：

ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS | 2011年 / 11卷 / 15期

关键词：

CHEMISTRY-CLIMATE MODEL; LONG-TERM VARIATIONS; STRATOSPHERIC OZONE; TECHNICAL NOTE; IRRADIANCE; CIRCULATION; SIMULATION; TRANSPORT; SURFACE; TRENDS;

D O I：

10.5194/acp-11-7533-2011

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Monthly averaged surface erythemal solar irradiance (UV-Ery) for local noon from 1960 to 2100 has been derived using radiative transfer calculations and projections of ozone, temperature and cloud change from 14 chemistry climate models (CCM), as part of the CCMVal-2 activity of SPARC. Our calculations show the influence of ozone depletion and recovery on erythemal irradiance. In addition, we investigate UV-Ery changes caused by climate change due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The latter include effects of both stratospheric ozone and cloud changes. The derived estimates provide a global picture of the likely changes in erythemal irradiance during the 21st century. Uncertainties arise from the assumed scenarios, different parameterizations - particularly of cloud effects on UV-Ery - and the spread in the CCM projections. The calculations suggest that relative to 1980, annually mean UV-Ery in the 2090s will be on average similar to 12% lower at high latitudes in both hemispheres, similar to 3% lower at mid latitudes, and marginally higher (similar to 1 %) in the tropics. The largest reduction (similar to 16 %) is projected for Antarctica in October. Cloud effects are responsible for 2-3% of the reduction in UV-Ery at high latitudes, but they slightly moderate it at mid-latitudes (similar to 1 %). The year of return of erythemal irradiance to values of certain milestones (1965 and 1980) depends largely on the return of column ozone to the corresponding levels and is associated with large uncertainties mainly due to the spread of the model projections. The inclusion of cloud effects in the calculations has only a small effect of the return years. At mid and high latitudes, changes in clouds and stratospheric ozone transport by global circulation changes due to greenhouse gases will sustain the erythemal irradiance at levels below those in 1965, despite the removal of ozone depleting substances. At northern high latitudes (60 degrees - 90 degrees), the projected decreases in cloud transmittance towards the end of the 21st century will reduce the yearly average surface erythemal irradiance by similar to 5% with respect to the 1960s.

引用

页码：7533 / 7545

页数：13

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