Slope stability and eruption prediction on the eastern flank of Mount Etna

Recent work applying knowledge of the failure of materials to volcanic eruptions in Kamchatka, Alaska and mainland USA, has shown that inverse rate analysis of seismic data can accurately predict eruption times up to 2 or 3 weeks in advance. We find evidence that application of the same principles to ground deformation data on Mt Etna's eastern flank prior to the eruptions of 1985 and 1989 provides good eruption time predictions more than 3 months in advance. The same data also point to an eruption triggering mechanism involving an interplay between slope creep and magma pressure that has not been described before.