Attribution of cyclogenesis region sea surface temperature change to anthropogenic influence

被引：31

作者：

Gillett, N. P. ^{[1
]}

Stott, P. A. ^{[3
]}

Santer, B. D. ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Climat Res Unit, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England

[2] Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Program Climate Model Diag & Intercomparison, Livermore, CA 94550 USA

[3] Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2008年 / 35卷 / 09期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1029/2008GL033670

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

Previous research has identified links between tropical cyclone activity and sea surface temperatures in the tropical cyclogenesis regions of the North Atlantic and Western North Pacific. Other work has demonstrated that warming in these regions is inconsistent with simulated internal variability. After evaluating the variability of a suite of climate models on a range of timescales, we use detection and attribution methods and a suite of 20th century simulations including anthropogenic and natural forcing to identify a significant response to external forcing in both regions during the June-November hurricane season over the 20th century. We then use separate simulations of the response to natural and anthropogenic forcing to identify anthropogenic influence independently of natural influence in both the Atlantic and Pacific Cyclogenesis Regions.

引用

页数：5

共 24 条

[1] Estimating signal amplitudes in optimal fingerprinting, part I: theory [J].

Allen, MR ;

Stott, PA .

CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2003, 21 (5-6) :477-491

[2] Checking for model consistency in optimal fingerprinting [J].

Allen, MR ;

Tett, SFB .

CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 1999, 15 (06) :419-434

[3] Global warming and western North Pacific typhoon activity from an observational perspective [J].

Chan, JCL ;

Liu, KS .

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2004, 17 (23) :4590-4602

[4] High-frequency variability in hurricane power dissipation and its relationship to global temperature [J].

Elsner, JB ;

Tsonis, AA ;

Jagger, TH .

BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 2006, 87 (06) :763-+

[5] Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years [J].

Emanuel, K .

NATURE, 2005, 436 (7051) :686-688

[6] Environmental factors affecting tropical cyclone power dissipation [J].

Emanuel, Kerry .

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2007, 20 (22) :5497-5509

[7] Detecting anthropogenic influence with a multi-model ensemble [J].

Gillett, NP ;

Zwiers, FW ;

Weaver, AJ ;

Hegerl, GC ;

Allen, MR ;

Stott, PA .

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2002, 29 (20)

[8] The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity:: Causes and implications [J].

Goldenberg, SB ;

Landsea, CW ;

Mestas-Nuñez, AM ;

Gray, WM .

SCIENCE, 2001, 293 (5529) :474-479

[9]

Hegerl GC, 2007, AR4 CLIMATE CHANGE 2007: THE PHYSICAL SCIENCE BASIS, P663

[10] Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: natural variability or climate trend? [J].

Holland, Greg J. ;

Webster, Peter J. .

PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES, 2007, 365 (1860) :2695-2716

← 1 2 3 →