Foot-and-mouth disease and the Mexican cattle industry

被引：13

作者：

Nogueira, Lia ^{[1
]}

Marsh, Thomas L. ^{[2
]}

Tozer, Peter R. ^{[3
,4
]}

Peel, Derrell ^{[5
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801 USA

[2] Washington State Univ, Sch Econ Sci, Sch Global Anim Hlth, Pullman, WA 99164 USA

[3] Univ New England, Sch Business Econ & Publ Policy, St W Wyalong, NSW 2671, Australia

[4] PRT Consulting, St W Wyalong, NSW 2671, Australia

[5] Oklahoma State Univ, Dept Agr Econ, Stillwater, OK 74078 USA

来源：

AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS | 2011年 / 42卷

关键词：

Foot-and-mouth disease; Welfare effects; Cattle trade; Cattle production; Invasive species; Mexico; MITIGATION STRATEGIES; ECONOMICS; DEMAND; RISK;

D O I：

10.1111/j.1574-0862.2011.00550.x

中图分类号：

F3 [农业经济];

学科分类号：

120302 [林业经济管理];

摘要：

The objective of this article is to analyze the domestic and international effects of a hypothetical foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in the Mexican cattle industry. A discrete time dynamic optimization model of the Mexican cattle sector is specified, and linked to domestic and international markets. Economic consequences of FMD outbreaks are simulated over time and under different scenarios. Specific findings and general policy recommendations are provided. The study reports a range of outbreaks from localized to large scale and suggests that changes in economic surplus due to FMD range from a positive net gain of $0.89 to $1.6 billion to a net loss of about $67 billion, depending on the specific mitigation strategy and outbreak scenario.

引用

页码：33 / 44

页数：12

共 39 条

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Cattle cycles, heterogeneous expectations and the age distribution of capital [J].