Climate Variability and Dengue Fever in Warm and Humid Mexico

被引:75
作者
Colon-Gonzalez, Felipe J. [1 ]
Lake, Iain R. [1 ]
Bentham, Graham [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Climat Res Unit 01 05, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res Headquarters, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England
关键词
AEDES-AEGYPTI; EL-NINO; TEMPERATURE; IMPACT; DETERMINANTS; CIRCULATION; EPIDEMICS; TRINIDAD; THAILAND; DISEASE;
D O I
10.4269/ajtmh.2011.10-0609
中图分类号
R1 [预防医学、卫生学];
学科分类号
1004 ; 120402 ;
摘要
Multiple linear regression models were fitted to look for associations between changes in the incidence rate of dengue fever and climate variability in the warm and humid region of Mexico. Data were collected for 12 Mexican provinces over a 23-year period (January 1985 to December 2007). Our results show that the incidence rate or risk of infection is higher during El Nino events and in the warm and wet season. We provide evidence to show that dengue fever incidence was positively associated with the strength of El Nino and the minimum temperature, especially during the cool and dry season. Our study complements the understanding of dengue fever dynamics in the region and may be useful for the development of early warning systems.
引用
收藏
页码:757 / 763
页数:7
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