Economics - The promise of prediction markets

被引：197

作者：

Arrow, Kenneth J. ^{[2
]}

Forsythe, Robert ^{[3
]}

Gorham, Michael ^{[4
]}

Hahn, Robert ^{[1
]}

Hanson, Robin ^{[5
]}

Ledyard, John O. ^{[6
]}

Levmore, Saul ^{[7
]}

Litan, Robert ^{[8
]}

Milgrom, Paul ^{[2
]}

Nelson, Forrest D. ^{[9
]}

Neumann, George R. ^{[9
]}

Ottaviani, Marco ^{[10
]}

Schelling, Thomas C. ^{[11
]}

Shiller, Robert J. ^{[12
]}

Smith, Vernon L. ^{[13
]}

Snowberg, Erik ^{[14
]}

Sunstein, Cass R. ^{[7
]}

Tetlock, Paul C.

Tetlock, Philip E. ^{[15
,16
]}

Varian, Hal R. ^{[17
]}

Wolfers, Justin ^{[18
]}

Zitzewitz, Eric ^{[19
]}

机构：

[1] Amer Enterprise Inst Publ Policy Res, Reg Markets Ctr, Washington, DC 20036 USA

[2] Stanford Univ, Dept Econ, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

[3] Univ S Florida, Coll Business, Tampa, FL 33620 USA

[4] IIT, Stuart Sch Business, Chicago, IL 60661 USA

[5] George Mason Univ, Dept Econ, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA

[6] CALTECH, Dept Econ, Pasadena, CA 91125 USA

[7] Univ Chicago, Sch Law, Chicago, IL 60637 USA

[8] Kauffman Fdn, Kansas City, MO 64110 USA

[9] Univ Iowa, Dept Econ, Iowa City, IA 52242 USA

[10] Northwestern Univ, JL Kellogg Grad Sch Management, Evanston, IL 60208 USA

[11] Univ Maryland, Sch Publ Policy, College Pk, MD 20742 USA

[12] Yale Univ, Dept Econ, New Haven, CT 06520 USA

[13] Chapman Univ, Sch Law, Orange, CA 92866 USA

[14] Stanford Univ, Grad Sch Business, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

[15] Yale Univ, Sch Management, New Haven, CT 06520 USA

[16] Univ Calif Berkeley, Haas Sch Business, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA

[17] Univ Calif Berkeley, Sch Informat, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA

[18] Univ Penn, Wharton Sch, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA

[19] Dartmouth Coll, Dept Econ, Hanover, NH 03755 USA

来源：

SCIENCE | 2008年 / 320卷 / 5878期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1126/science.1157679

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

引用

页码：877 / 878

页数：2

共 16 条

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[J]. JOURNAL OF REGULATORY ECONOMICS, 2006, 29 (03) : 265 - 281
[5] Hahn RW, 2005, HARVARD J LAW PUBL P, V29, P213
[6] Hanson RD, 1999, IEEE INTELL SYST APP, V14, P16
[7] Hanson Robin, 2003, P ACM INT C EL COMM, P272
[8] Interpreting the predictions of prediction markets
Manski, CF
[J]. ECONOMICS LETTERS, 2006, 91 (03) : 425 - 429
[9] Outcome manipulation in corporate prediction markets
Ottaviani, Marco
Sorensen, Peter Norman
[J]. JOURNAL OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, 2007, 5 (2-3) : 554 - 563
[10] Use of prediction markets to forecast infectious disease activity
Polgreen, Philip M.
Nelson, Forrest D.
Neumann, George R.
[J]. CLINICAL INFECTIOUS DISEASES, 2007, 44 (02) : 272 - 279

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