Regional climate assessment of precipitation and temperature in Southern Punjab (Pakistan) using SimCLIM climate model for different temporal scales

被引：60

作者：

Amin, Asad ^{[1
]}

Nasim, Wajid ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Mubeen, Muhammad ^{[1
]}

Sarwar, Saleem ^{[4
]}

Urich, Peter ^{[5
]}

Ahmad, Ashfaq ^{[6
]}

Wajid, Aftab ^{[6
]}

Khaliq, Tasneem ^{[6
]}

Rasul, Fahd ^{[6
]}

Hammad, Hafiz Mohkum ^{[1
]}

Rehmani, Muhammad Ishaq Asif ^{[7
]}

Mubarak, Hussani ^{[8
,9
,10
]}

Mirza, Nosheen ^{[8
,9
,10
]}

Wahid, Abdul ^{[11
]}

Ahamd, Shakeel ^{[12
]}

Fahad, Shah ^{[13
]}

Ullah, Abid ^{[14
]}

Khan, Mohammad Nauman ^{[13
]}

Ameen, Asif ^{[15
]}

Amanullah ^{[16
]}

Shahzad, Babar ^{[17
]}

Saud, Shah ^{[18
]}

Alharby, Hesham ^{[19
]}

Ata-Ul-Karim, Syed Tahir ^{[20
]}

Adnan, Muhammad ^{[21
]}

Islam, Faisal ^{[22
,23
]}

Ali, Qazi Shoaib ^{[24
]}

机构：

[1] CIIT Ctr Hlth Res, Dept Environm Sci, Vehari 61100, Pakistan

[2] IAMM, CIHEAM, F-34090 Montpellier, France

[3] Natl Agr Res Flagship, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosyst, Toowoomba, Qld 4350, Australia

[4] SMEC Consultancy Serv, Lahore 54660, Pakistan

[5] CLIMsystems, Flagstaff Hamilton 3210, New Zealand

[6] Univ Agr Faisalabad, Dept Agron, Agroclimatol Lab, Faisalabad 38040, Pakistan

[7] Ghazi Univ, Fac Agr Sci, Dept Agron, Dera Ghazi Khan, Pakistan

[8] COMSATS Inst Informat Technol, Dept Environm Sci, Abbottabad 22060, Pakistan

[9] Natl Engn Res Ctr Control & Treatment Heavy Met P, Changsha 410083, Hunan, Peoples R China

[10] Cent South Univ, Sch Met & Environm, Dept Environm Engn, Changsha 410083, Hunan, Peoples R China

[11] Bahauddin Zakariya Univ, Dept Environm Sci, Multan, Pakistan

[12] Bahauddin Zakariya Univ, Dept Agron, Multan, Pakistan

[13] Huazhong Agr Univ, Coll Plant Sci & Technol, Wuhan 430070, Hubei, Peoples R China

[14] Huazhong Agr Univ, Natl Key Lab Crop Genet Improvement, Wuhan 430070, Hubei, Peoples R China

[15] China Agr Univ, Coll Agron & Biotechnol, Beijing 100193, Peoples R China

[16] Univ Agr, Fac Crop Prod, Dept Agron, Peshawar 25130, Pakistan

[17] Agr Univ, Faisalabad 38000, Pakistan

[18] Northeast Agr Univ, Dept Hort, Harbin 150030, Heilongjiang, Peoples R China

[19] King Abdulaziz Univ, Fac Sci, Dept Biol Sci, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia

[20] Nanjing Agr Univ, Natl Engn & Technol Ctr Informat Agr, 1 Weigang Rd, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, Peoples R China

[21] Univ Swabi, Dept Agr, Swabi, Pakistan

[22] Zhejiang Univ, Inst Crop Sci, Hangzhou 310058, Zhejiang, Peoples R China

[23] Zhejiang Univ, Zhejiang Key Lab Crop Germpalsm, Hangzhou 310058, Zhejiang, Peoples R China

[24] Huazhong Agr Univ, Coll Hort & Forestry Sci, Wuhan 430070, Hubei, Peoples R China

来源：

THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY | 2018年 / 131卷 / 1-2期

关键词：

IMPACTS; FUTURE;

D O I：

10.1007/s00704-016-1960-1

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

Unbalanced climate during the last decades has created spatially alarming and destructive situations in the world. Anomalies in temperature and precipitation enhance the risks for crop production in large agricultural region (especially the Southern Punjab) of Pakistan. Detailed analysis of historic weather data (1980-2011) record helped in creating baseline data to compare with model projection (SimCLIM) for regional level. Ensemble of 40 GCMs used for climatic projections with greenhouse gas (GHG) representative concentration pathways (RCP-4.5, 6.0, 8.5) was selected on the baseline comparison and used for 2025 and 2050 climate projection. Precipitation projected by ensemble and regional weather observatory at baseline showed highly unpredictable nature while both temperature extremes showed 95 % confidence level on a monthly projection. Percentage change in precipitation projected by model with RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5 showed uncertainty 3.3 to 5.6 %, 2.9 to 5.2 %, and 3.6 to 7.9 % for 2025 and 2050, respectively. Percentage change of minimum temperature from base temperature showed that 5.1, 4.7, and 5.8 % for 2025 and 9.0, 8.1, and 12.0 % increase for projection year 2050 with RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 and maximum temperature 2.7, 2.5, and 3.0 % for 2025 and 4.7, 4.4, and 6.4 % for 2050 will be increased with RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively. Uneven increase in precipitation and asymmetric increase in temperature extremes in future would also increase the risk associated with management of climatic uncertainties. Future climate projection will enable us for better risk management decisions.

引用

页码：121 / 131

页数：11

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