Satellite and ground-based microclimate and hydrologic analyses coupled with a regional urban growth model

Urban development is shown to induce predictable changes in satellite-based measures of radiant surface temperature and evapotranspiration fraction-as long as certain features of the development are known. Specifically, the vegetation changes that accompany the development and the initial climatic state of the land parcel must be noted. Techniques are also developed for quantifying the effects of urbanization on the surface hydrology at a watershed scale. Streamflow and precipitation data are related graphically in order to determine a watershed's general ratio of stormwater runoff to rainfall, along with any changes in the ratio over time. Four distinct runoff responses, separated by season and antecedent moisture conditions, are distinguishable for a particular basin, with the response during the non-summer months under typical antecedent moisture conditions the most representative of and responsive to land-use patterns. This particular runoff response can be estimated from satellite-derived land cover patterns and certain physical attributes of a basin. These satellite-based microclimate and hydrologic analyses are coupled with an existing urban growth model (SLEUTH). The SLEUTH urban growth model simulates future development scenarios for a region of interest. The resulting changes in urban land use lead to the evolution of site-specific climate and hydrology based on the scheme that is presented in this paper. This study, as well as related tools and bodies of knowledge, can be used to broaden the scientific basis behind land-use management decisions. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.