The development and use of demographic models

被引:20
作者
Coale, A
Trussell, J
机构
[1] Princeton University, Princeton, NJ
来源
POPULATION STUDIES-A JOURNAL OF DEMOGRAPHY | 1996年 / 50卷 / 03期
关键词
D O I
10.1080/0032472031000149576
中图分类号
C921 [人口统计学];
学科分类号
摘要
In this review, we first examine two classical demographic models - conventional life tables and stable populations - and a modern generalization of stable population theory; we then discuss mathematical models of conception and birth. These models involve purely mathematical relations in formal demography as opposed to empirical regularities. Next we consider model age schedules of mortality, nuptiality, marital fertility, fertility, and migration that are explicitly based on such empirical patterns. We close this empirical section with a discussion of model stable populations, which are based on model life tables. We next examine the use of demographic models in forecasting future mortality, nuptiality, and fertility and in population projection. Following a discussion of microsimulation models, which gives us the opportunity to mention model age schedules of post partum amenorrhoea and of sterility, we close with observations about the purposes and uses of demographic models.
引用
收藏
页码:469 / +
页数:1
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