A general framework illustrating an approach to quantitative microbial food safety risk assessment

Hazard analysis critical control point (HACCP), risk assessment, predictive microbiology, and dose-response modeling have been recognized as important tools for the assessment and management of health risks posed by food-borne pathogens. Unfortunately, the biology of both the food chain and food poisoning is complex and dynamic. Therefore, mathematical modeling of microbial risk from food production through to consumption and illness is difficult. Nevertheless, previous authors have made impressive progress in modeling specific pathogen-food-consumer combinations. In this study a framework for a Monte Carlo model of a generic food system was developed. It links together food ingredients, batch processing, cross contamination, microbial growth, cooking, recontamination, consumption, human exposure to pathogens, the dose-response relationship, and the biologic and economic impact components of such risks. This framework is presented to illustrate one potential approach to quantitative risk assessment for microbial food safety. It requires refinement with appropriate distributions and mathematical relationships before it can be applied to a specific pathogen-food-consumer situation.