A Model of Casino Gambling

被引：110

作者：

Barberis, Nicholas ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Yale Univ, Sch Management, New Haven, CT 06511 USA

来源：

MANAGEMENT SCIENCE | 2012年 / 58卷 / 01期

关键词：

gambling; prospect theory; time inconsistency; probability weighting; PROSPECT-THEORY; UTILITY; UNCERTAINTY; RISK;

D O I：

10.1287/mnsc.1110.1435

中图分类号：

C93 [管理学];

学科分类号：

12 ; 1201 ; 1202 ; 120202 ;

摘要：

We show that prospect theory offers a rich theory of casino gambling, one that captures several features of actual gambling behavior. First, we demonstrate that for a wide range of preference parameter values, a prospect theory agent would be willing to gamble in a casino even if the casino offers only bets with no skewness and with zero or negative expected value. Second, we show that the probability weighting embedded in prospect theory leads to a plausible time inconsistency: at the moment he enters a casino, the agent plans to follow one particular gambling strategy; but after he starts playing, he wants to switch to a different strategy. The model therefore predicts heterogeneity in gambling behavior: how a gambler behaves depends on whether he is aware of the time inconsistency; and, if he is aware of it, on whether he can commit in advance to his initial plan of action.

引用

页码：35 / 51

页数：17

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