Backcasting images of the future city-Time and space for sustainable development in Stockholm

被引：58

作者：

Hojer, Mattias ^{[1
]}

Gullberg, Anders ^{[2
]}

Pettersson, Ronny ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Royal Inst Technol, Div Environm Strategies Res, DKV 30, SE-10044 Stockholm, Sweden

[2] Royal Inst Technol, Div Hist Sci & Technol, SE-10044 Stockholm, Sweden

[3] Stockholm Univ, Dept Econ Hist, Stockholm, Sweden

来源：

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE | 2011年 / 78卷 / 05期

关键词：

Backcasting; City; Energy; Sustainable urban development; TRANSPORT; SCENARIO; POLICY; SHIFT;

D O I：

10.1016/j.techfore.2011.01.009

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This paper presents and discusses a backcasting study for Stockholm 2050. The focus is on developing images of a future where Stockholm citizens have sustainable energy use-here defined as a 60% reduction per capita over a 50-year period. The perspective is that of households, so all energy is allocated to individuals' activities rather than being discussed from a sector perspective. Six images of the future are developed by combining a space dimension (three versions of changes in urban structure) and a time dimension (two versions of people's life tempo). Added to this is technological development, so that the images of the future illustrate how combinations of planning, behavioural change and technological development could lead to sustainable energy use. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：819 / 834

页数：16

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