A framework for measuring international business cycles

The classical measurement of business cycles, growth cycles, and growth rate cycles lies at the foundation for the understanding of macroeconomic dynamics in open market economies. This essay presents a framework for analyzing and forecasting cyclical behavior in economic activity, employment, and inflation. The framework is extended to foreign trade and important domestic sectors of an economy such as manufacturing, services, and construction. This multidimensional framework, which allows for a more in-depth analysis, serves as a model to be developed on a comparable basis across countries. Business cycle and growth rate cycle reference chronologies, which have been determined for the major economies, are presented in this context. (C) 2001 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.