A framework for measuring international business cycles

被引：20

作者：

Banerji, A

Hiris, L

机构：

[1] Econ Cycle Res Inst, New York, NY 10170 USA

[2] Long Isl Univ, Greenvale, NY 11548 USA

[3] Econ Cycle Res Inst, Greenvale, NY 11548 USA

来源：

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING | 2001年 / 17卷 / 03期

关键词：

business cycles; growth rate cycles; international reference cycles; international reference chronologies; international cycle dates; turning points; cyclical analysis; forecasting; leading indexes; long leading indexes; short leading indexes; economic sectors; inflation cycles; employment cycles; foreign trade; exports; imports;

D O I：

10.1016/S0169-2070(01)00089-9

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

The classical measurement of business cycles, growth cycles, and growth rate cycles lies at the foundation for the understanding of macroeconomic dynamics in open market economies. This essay presents a framework for analyzing and forecasting cyclical behavior in economic activity, employment, and inflation. The framework is extended to foreign trade and important domestic sectors of an economy such as manufacturing, services, and construction. This multidimensional framework, which allows for a more in-depth analysis, serves as a model to be developed on a comparable basis across countries. Business cycle and growth rate cycle reference chronologies, which have been determined for the major economies, are presented in this context. (C) 2001 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

引用

页码：333 / 348

页数：16