A method countries can use to estimate changes in carbon stored in harvested wood products and the uncertainty of such estimates

被引：35

作者：

Skog, Kenneth E. ^{[1
]}

Pingoud, Kim ^{[2
]}

Smith, James E. ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] USDA Forest Serv, Forest Prod Lab, Madison, WI 53726 USA

[2] Finish Forest Res Inst, FIN-00170 Helsinki, Finland

[3] USDA Forest Serv, NE Forest Res Stn, Durham, NH 03824 USA

来源：

ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT | 2004年 / 33卷 / Suppl 1期

关键词：

carbon sequestration; harvested wood products; estimation methods;

D O I：

10.1007/s00267-003-9118-1

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

A method is suggested for estimating additions to carbon stored in harvested wood products (HWP) and for evaluating uncertainty. The method uses data on HWP production and trade from several decades and tracks annual additions to pools of HWP in use, removals from use, additions to solid waste disposal sites (SWDS), and decay from SWDS. The method is consistent with IPCC guidance for estimating emissions from SWDS. Uncertainty is postulated in the form of probability density functions for 14 variables, using Monte Carlo simulation. Results for the United States suggest that uncertainty is most sensitive to uncertainty in production data for solid-wood products, the factor used to convert products to carbon, and the proportion of solidwood and paper in SWDS. Uncertainty in the use (service) life of solidwood products has a limited effect because an error offsets changes in products in use and in SWDS. The method provides a starting point for meeting the aims of the IPCC Good Practice Guidance.

引用

页码：S65 / S73

页数：9