Crustal deformation in the Baikal rift from GPS measurements

Three years and four campaigns of Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements (1994-1997) in the Baikal rift zone, largest active continental rift system in Eurasia, show crustal extension at a rate of 4.5+/-1.2 mm/yr in a WNW-ESE direction. A comparison with moment release of-large historical earthquakes suggests that elastic strain is currently accumulating in the Baikal rift zone along active faults that currently have the potential for a M=7.5 earthquake. The GPS-derived extension rate. in the Baikal rift zone is at least two times greater than the prediction of most deformation models of Asia. This result could reflect the dynamic contribution of the Pacific-Eurasia subduction to intracontinental deformation in Asia, in addition to the effect of the India-Eurasia collision.