Scenarios for Global Biodiversity in the 21st Century

被引：1341

作者：

Pereira, Henrique M. ^{[1
]}

Leadley, Paul W. ^{[2
]}

Proenca, Vania ^{[1
]}

Alkemade, Rob ^{[3
]}

Scharlemann, Joern P. W. ^{[4
]}

Fernandez-Manjarres, Juan F. ^{[2
]}

Araujo, Miguel B. ^{[5
,6
]}

Balvanera, Patricia ^{[7
]}

Biggs, Reinette ^{[8
]}

Cheung, William W. L. ^{[9
]}

Chini, Louise ^{[10
]}

Cooper, H. David ^{[11
]}

Gilman, Eric L. ^{[12
]}

Guenette, Sylvie ^{[13
]}

Hurtt, George C. ^{[10
,14
]}

Huntington, Henry P. ^{[15
]}

Mace, Georgina M. ^{[16
]}

Oberdorff, Thierry ^{[17
]}

Revenga, Carmen ^{[18
]}

Rodrigues, Patricia ^{[1
]}

Scholes, Robert J. ^{[19
]}

Sumaila, Ussif Rashid ^{[13
]}

Walpole, Matt ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Lisbon, Fac Ciencias, Ctr Biol Ambiental, P-1749016 Lisbon, Portugal

[2] Univ Paris 11, CNRS, Lab Ecol Systemat & Evolut, UMR 8079, F-91405 Orsay, France

[3] Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy PBL, NL-3720 AH Bilthoven, Netherlands

[4] United Nations Environm Programme World Conservat, Cambridge CB3 0EL, England

[5] CSIC, Museo Nacl Ciencias Nat, Dept Biodiversidad & Biol Evolut, E-28006 Madrid, Spain

[6] Univ Evora, Ctr Invest Biodiversidade & Recursos Genet, Catedra Rui Nabeiro Biodiversidade, P-7000 Evora, Portugal

[7] Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Ctr Invest Ecosistemas, Morelia 58090, Michoacan, Mexico

[8] Stockholm Univ, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden

[9] Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England

[10] Univ Maryland, Dept Geog, College Pk, MD 20742 USA

[11] World Trade Ctr, Secretariat Convent Biol Divers, Montreal, PQ H2Y 1N9, Canada

[12] Hawaii Pacific Univ, Coll Nat & Computat Sci, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA

[13] Univ British Columbia, AERL, Fisheries Ctr, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4, Canada

[14] Pacific NW Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD 20740 USA

[15] Pew Environm Grp, Eagle River, AK 99577 USA

[16] Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Ctr Populat Biol, Ascot SL5 7PY, Berks, England

[17] Museum Natl Hist Nat, UMR IRD 207, Lab Biol Organismes & Ecosyst Aquat, F-75005 Paris, France

[18] Nature Conservancy, Arlington, VA 22203 USA

[19] CSIR Nat Resources & Environm, ZA-0001 Pretoria, South Africa

来源：

SCIENCE | 2010年 / 330卷 / 6010期

关键词：

CLIMATE-CHANGE; LAND-USE; RANGE SHIFTS; FUTURE; MODELS; DISTRIBUTIONS; VULNERABILITY; UNCERTAINTY; EXTINCTIONS; DIVERSITY;

D O I：

10.1126/science.1196624

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Quantitative scenarios are coming of age as a tool for evaluating the impact of future socioeconomic development pathways on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts, as well as comparing model projections to observations. Scenarios consistently indicate that biodiversity will continue to decline over the 21st century. However, the range of projected changes is much broader than most studies suggest, partly because there are major opportunities to intervene through better policies, but also because of large uncertainties in projections.

引用

页码：1496 / 1501

页数：6

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