Evaluation of the simple calculated osteoporosis risk estimation (SCORE) in a sample of white women from Belgium

Identifying patients at risk of developing an osteoporosis-related fracture will continue to be a challenge. The "gold standard" for osteoporosis diagnosis is bone densitometry. However, economic issues or availability of the technology may prevent its use under a mass screening scenario. A risk assessment instrument, the "simple calculated osteoporosis risk estimation" (SCORE), has been reported to appropriately identify women likely to have low (t score less than or equal to -2 SD) bone mineral density (BMD) and who should be referred for bone densitometry. The aim of our study is to evaluate the discriminatory performance of SCORE in a random sample of postmenopausal white women from Belgium. For this purpose, we gathered medical data on 4035 consecutive patients aged greater than or equal to 45 years, either consulting spontaneously or referred for a BMD measurement to an outpatient osteoporosis center located at the University of Liege Belgium. BMD measurements, using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) technology, were taken at the hip (total and neck) and lumbar spine (L2-4). At the recommended cutoff point of 6, SCORE had a sensitivity of 91.5% to detect low BMD at any of the measured sites, a specificity of 26.5%, a positive predictive value of 52.8%, and a negative predictive value or 77.7%. According to SCORE, 18% of the patients would not be recommended for densitometry. Among these, 10.9% were misclassified as they had osteoporosis (t score less than or equal to -2.5 SD) at one or more of the sites investigated. The negative predictive errors of SCORE, when failing to detect osteoporosis, were only 1% for the total hip, 3.2% for the femoral neck, and 8.8% for the lumbar spine. We conclude that, notwithstanding the high values of sensitivity, SCORE specificity is too low to be useful as a diagnostic tool for screening patients at high risk to later develop osteoporosis. Nevertheless, from a resource allocation perspective, this instrument can be used with relative confidence to exclude patients who do not need a BMD measurement, and would therefore provide an opportunity to realize substantial cost savings in comparison to a mass screening strategy. (Bone 29:374-380;2001) (C) 2001 by Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.