Will climate change drive 21st century burn rates in Canadian boreal forest outside of its natural variability: collating global climate model experiments with sedimentary charcoal data

被引:127
作者
Bergeron, Yves [1 ]
Cyr, Dominic [2 ]
Girardin, Martin P. [3 ]
Carcaillet, Christopher [4 ,5 ]
机构
[1] Univ Quebec Abitibi Temiscamingue, Chaire Ind Amenagement Forestier Durable NSERC UQ, Rouyn Noranda, PQ J9X 5E4, Canada
[2] Univ Quebec, Ctr Etude Foret, Montreal, PQ H3C 3P8, Canada
[3] Nat Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Serv, Laurentian Forestry Ctr, Stn St Foy, Quebec City, PQ G1V 4C7, Canada
[4] Univ Montpellier 2, Ctr Bioarcheol & Ecol, CNRS, UMR5059, F-34090 Montpellier, France
[5] Univ Montpellier 2, Paleoenvironm & Chronoecol PALECO EPHE, F-34090 Montpellier, France
基金
加拿大自然科学与工程研究理事会;
关键词
ADAPTIVE REGRESSION SPLINES; FIRE-FREQUENCY; NORTH-AMERICA; DISTURBANCE; VEGETATION; HOLOCENE; QUEBEC; MANAGEMENT; REGIMES; AREA;
D O I
10.1071/WF09092
中图分类号
S7 [林业];
学科分类号
0829 ; 0907 ;
摘要
Natural ecosystems have developed within ranges of conditions that can serve as references for setting conservation targets or assessing the current ecological integrity of managed ecosystems. Because of their climate determinism, forest fires are likely to have consequences that could exacerbate biophysical and socioeconomical vulnerabilities in the context of climate change. We evaluated future trends in fire activity under climate change in the eastern Canadian boreal forest and investigated whether these changes were included in the variability observed during the last 7000 years from sedimentary charcoal records from three lakes. Prediction of future annual area burned was made using simulated Monthly Drought Code data collected from an ensemble of 19 global climate model experiments. The increase in burn rate that is predicted for the end of the 21st century (0.45% year(-1) with 95% confidence interval (0.32, 0.59) falls well within the long-term past variability (0.37 to 0.90% year(-1)). Although our results suggest that the predicted change in burn rates per se will not move this ecosystem to new conditions, the effects of increasing fire incidence cumulated with current rates of clear-cutting or other low-retention types of harvesting, which still prevail in this region, remain preoccupying.
引用
收藏
页码:1127 / 1139
页数:13
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