A real-time Global Warming Index

被引：144

作者：

Haustein, K. ^{[1
]}

Allen, M. R. ^{[1
,2
]}

Forster, P. M. ^{[3
]}

Otto, F. E. L. ^{[1
]}

Mitchell, D. M. ^{[1
,6
]}

Matthews, H. D. ^{[4
]}

Frame, D. J. ^{[5
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Oxford, England

[2] Univ Oxford, Dept Phys, Oxford, England

[3] Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England

[4] Concordia Univ, Dept Geog Planning & Environm, Montreal, PQ, Canada

[5] Victoria Univ Wellington, New Zealand Climate Change Res Inst, Sch Geog Environm & Earth Sci, Wellington, New Zealand

[6] Univ Bristol, Sch Geog Sci, Bristol, Avon, England

来源：

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS | 2017年 / 7卷

关键词：

ENERGY BUDGET CONSTRAINTS; SURFACE-TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE RESPONSE; VOLCANIC-ERUPTIONS; CARBON-DIOXIDE; VARIABILITY; PACIFIC; AIR; UNCERTAINTY; ATTRIBUTION;

D O I：

10.1038/s41598-017-14828-5

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

We propose a simple real-time index of global human-induced warming and assess its robustness to uncertainties in climate forcing and short-term climate fluctuations. This index provides improved scientific context for temperature stabilisation targets and has the potential to decrease the volatility of climate policy. We quantify uncertainties arising from temperature observations, climate radiative forcings, internal variability and the model response. Our index and the associated rate of humaninduced warming is compatible with a range of other more sophisticated methods to estimate the human contribution to observed global temperature change.

引用

收藏

页数：6

相关论文

共 56 条

[1] Liability for climate change [J].

Allen, M .

NATURE, 2003, 421 (6926) :891-892

[2]

Armour KC, 2017, NAT CLIM CHANGE, V7, P331, DOI [10.1038/nclimate3278, 10.1038/NCLIMATE3278]

[3]

Barrett S., 2014, SUSTAINABLE HUMANITY, P261

[4] Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature, Version 5 (ERSSTv5): Upgrades, Validations, and Intercomparisons [J].

Huang, Boyin ;

Thorne, Peter W. ;

Banzon, Viva F. ;

Boyer, Tim ;

Chepurin, Gennady ;

Lawrimore, Jay H. ;

Menne, Matthew J. ;

Smith, Thomas M. ;

Vose, Russell S. ;

Zhang, Huai-Min .

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2017, 30 (20) :8179-8205

[5] Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming [J].

Cheng, Jun ;

Liu, Zhengyu ;

Zhang, Shaoqing ;

Liu, Wei ;

Dong, Lina ;

Liu, Peng ;

Li, Hongli .

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2016, 113 (12) :3175-3178

[6] Robust comparison of climate models with observations using blended land air and ocean sea surface temperatures [J].

Cowtan, Kevin ;

Hausfather, Zeke ;

Hawkins, Ed ;

Jacobs, Peter ;

Mann, Michael E. ;

Miller, Sonya K. ;

Steinman, Byron A. ;

Stolpe, Martin B. ;

Way, Robert G. .

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2015, 42 (15) :6526-6534

[7] Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends [J].

Cowtan, Kevin ;

Way, Robert G. .

QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 2014, 140 (683) :1935-1944

[8] Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide: A significant revision of the methane radiative forcing [J].

Etminan, M. ;

Myhre, G. ;

Highwood, E. J. ;

Shine, K. P. .

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2016, 43 (24) :12614-12623

[9] High predictive skill of global surface temperature a year ahead [J].

Folland, Chris K. ;

Colman, Andrew W. ;

Smith, Doug M. ;

Boucher, Olivier ;

Parker, David E. ;

Vernier, Jean-Paul .

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2013, 40 (04) :761-767

[10] Evaluating adjusted forcing and model spread for historical and future scenarios in the CMIP5 generation of climate models [J].

Forster, Piers M. ;

Andrews, Timothy ;

Good, Peter ;

Gregory, Jonathan M. ;

Jackson, Lawrence S. ;

Zelinka, Mark .

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2013, 118 (03) :1139-1150

← 1 2 3 4 5 6 →