Ecological relationship between mesothelioma incidence/mortality and asbestos consumption in ten Western countries and Japan

The objective of the present study was to evaluate the ecological relationship between mesothelioma incidence/mortality and per capita asbestos consumption in ten Western countries and Japan. The two national indices used to assess the geographical correlation were the most recent incidence/mortality rate of mesothelioma for the population over 15 years of age, and the per capita asbestos consumption rate of approximately 10-25 years ago for the population of all ages at that time. Among the ten Western countries, a clear linear relationship was shown between the mesothelioma incidence/mortality rate and the preceding per capita asbestos consumption rate with the Spearman correlation coefficient at 0.70 (p=0.03), and R-2-value at 66%. However, the data-point for Japan was situated apart from the linear relationship due to the lower mesothelioma mortality rate, and when combined with other Western countries, the significant relationship diminished. it is possible that the asbestos consumption curve for Japan in past years lagged behind that for the Western countries and the cumulative exposure effect has not yet reached the level that can be expected from other Western countries.