The demand for US air transport service: a chaos and nonlinearity investigation

被引：36

作者：

Adrangi, B

Chatrath, A

Raffiee, K

机构：

[1] Univ Portland, Dr Robert Pamplin Jr Sch Business Adm, Portland, OR 97203 USA

[2] Univ Nevada, Coll Business Adm, Dept Econ, Reno, NV 89557 USA

来源：

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH PART E-LOGISTICS AND TRANSPORTATION REVIEW | 2001年 / 37卷 / 05期

关键词：

air transport; service demand; GARCH models; chaos and nonlinearity;

D O I：

10.1016/S1366-5545(00)00017-X

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This paper examines the behavior of the US airline industry's service demand. Monthly aggregate data for the industry are analyzed. While we find strong evidence of nonlinear dependence in the air transport service time series, the evidence is not consistent with chaos. We also show that GARCH models successfully explain the nonlinear structures in the US airline industry's service series. Finally, within-sample forecasts of air transport demand from the GARCH models outperform those of simple autoregressive models. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：337 / 353

页数：17

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[21] DISTINGUISHING RANDOM AND DETERMINISTIC SYSTEMS - ABRIDGED VERSION [J].