The value of improved enso prediction to US agriculture

被引：100

作者：

Solow, AR ^{[1
]}

Adams, RF

Bryant, KJ

Legler, DM

O'Brien, JJ

McCarl, BA

Nayda, W

Weiher, R

机构：

[1] Woods Hole Oceanog Inst, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA

[2] Oregon State Univ, Dept Agr & Resource Econ, Corvallis, OR 97331 USA

[3] Univ Arkansas, SE Res Ctr, Monticello, AR 71656 USA

[4] Florida State Univ, Ctr Ocean Atmosphere Predict Studies, Tallahassee, FL 32306 USA

[5] Texas A&M Univ, Dept Agr Econ, College Stn, TX 77843 USA

[6] NOAA, Off Policy & Strateg Planning, Washington, DC 20230 USA

来源：

CLIMATIC CHANGE | 1998年 / 39卷 / 01期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1023/A:1005342500057

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

The economic value of long-range weather prediction is measured by the increase in social welfare arising from the use of the prediction in economic decisionmaking. This paper describes a study of the economic value of ENSO prediction to U.S. agriculture. The interdisciplinary study involved the analysis of data and models from meteorology, plant science, and economics under a framework based on Bayesian decision analysis. The estimated annual Value of perfect ENSO prediction to U.S. agriculture is $323 million.

引用

页码：47 / 60

页数：14

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