Objective: To determine the costs of health services and the financial consequences of changes in the epidemiological profile of chronic diseases in Latin America. Study design: We conducted longitudinal analyses of costs and of the economic impact of the epidemiological transition in healthcare services for diabetes and hypertension in the Mexican health system. The study population included both the insured and uninsured populations. Methods: The cost-evaluation method was based on the instrumentation and consensus techniques. To estimate the epidemiological changes and financial consequences for 2004-2006, six models were constructed according, to the Box-Jenkins technique, using confidence intervals of 95% and the Box-Pierce test. Findings: Costs ranged from US$613 to US$887 for diabetes, and from US$485 to US$622 for hypertension. Regarding epidemiological changes for 2004 compared with 2006, an increase is expected in both cases, although results predict a greater increase for diabetes, 10-15% in all three institutions (P < 0.05). Comparing the financial consequences of health services required by insured and uninsured populations, the greater increase (17%) will be for the insured population (P < 0.05). The financial requirements for both diseases will amount to 9.5% of the total budget for the uninsured population and 13.5% for the insured population. Conclusions: If the risk factors and the different healthcare models remain as they are at present, the economic impact of expected epidemiological changes on the social security system will be particularly strong. Another relevant financial factor is the appearance of internal competition in the use and allocation of financial resources among the main providers in the health services; this factor becomes even more complicated within each provider. In effect, within each institution, hypertension and diabetes programmes must compete for resources with other programmes for chronic and infectious diseases. (c) 2005 The Royal Institute of Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
