共 41 条
Modelling patterns of clearance of HPV-16 infection and vaccination efficacy
被引:22
作者:
Baussano, Iacopo
[1
,2
]
Garnett, Geoff
Segnan, Nereo
[3
]
Ronco, Guglielmo
[3
]
Vineis, Paolo
[4
]
机构:
[1] Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, London W2 1PG, England
[2] CPO Piemonte, SCDU Epidemiol Tumori, Serv Stat Med, I-28100 Novara, Italy
[3] CPO Piemonte, Epidemiol Tumori, I-10100 Turin, Italy
[4] Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Dept Epidemiol & Publ Hlth, London W2 1PG, England
来源:
关键词:
Human Papillomavirus;
Vaccination;
Mathematical modelling;
HUMAN-PAPILLOMAVIRUS INFECTION;
CERVICAL INTRAEPITHELIAL NEOPLASIA;
VIRUS-LIKE PARTICLES;
NATURAL-HISTORY;
MATHEMATICAL-MODELS;
YOUNG-WOMEN;
FOLLOW-UP;
RISK;
TYPE-16;
COHORT;
D O I:
10.1016/j.vaccine.2010.11.082
中图分类号:
R392 [医学免疫学];
Q939.91 [免疫学];
学科分类号:
100102 ;
摘要:
A model representing carcinogenic HPV infection transmission dynamics and cervical cancer natural history was adapted to assess the consequences of introducing vaccination against HPV-16 infection. Alternative scenarios either allowing repeated infections with the HPV-16 (i.e. SIS scenario) or assuming that clearance of infection occurs through the development of a long lasting, specific immune response which protects against re-infection (i.e. SIR scenario) were investigated. The difference in reduction in lifetime cervical cancer achieved through vaccination of 12-year-old girls, between SIS and SIR scenarios, was up to 25% of expected cases in an unscreened population. This difference increased to 30% when vaccination of 12-year-old boys was also included as an intervention. The role of SIS or SIR dynamics should be accounted for in the assessment of model-based projections of the effectiveness of vaccination programmes, until available data about the transmission dynamics support the accuracy of model predictions. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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页码:1270 / 1277
页数:8
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