A model for influenza with vaccination and antiviral treatment

被引：109

作者：

Arino, Julien ^{[2
]}

Brauer, Fred ^{[3
]}

van den Driessche, P. ^{[4
]}

Watmough, James ^{[1
]}

Wu, Jianhong ^{[5
]}

机构：

[1] Univ New Brunswick, Dept Math & Stat, Fredericton, NB E3B 5A3, Canada

[2] Univ Manitoba, Dept Math, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada

[3] Univ British Columbia, Dept Math, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, Canada

[4] Univ Victoria, Dept Math & Stat, Victoria, BC V8W 3R4, Canada

[5] York Univ, Dept Math & Stat, Ctr Dis Modeling, N York, ON M3J 1P3, Canada

来源：

JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY | 2008年 / 253卷 / 01期

基金：

加拿大自然科学与工程研究理事会;

关键词：

disease transmission model; sensitivity; elasticity; control reproduction number; final size;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.02.026

中图分类号：

Q [生物科学];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Compartmental models for influenza that include control by vaccination and antiviral treatment are formulated. Analytic expressions for the basic reproduction number, control reproduction number and the final size of the epidemic are derived for this general class of disease transmission models. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of the dependence of the control reproduction number on the parameters of the model give a comparison of the various intervention strategies. Numerical computations of the deterministic models are compared with those of recent stochastic simulation influenza models. Predictions of the deterministic compartmental models are in general agreement with those of the stochastic simulation models. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：118 / 130

页数：13

共 17 条

[1] Emergence of drug resistance:: implications for antiviral control of pandemic influenza
Alexander, Murray E.
Bowman, Christopher S.
Feng, Zhilan
Gardam, Michael
Moghadas, Seyed M.
Rost, Gergely
Wu, Jianhong
Yan, Ping
[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, 2007, 274 (1619) : 1675 - 1684
[2] Simple models for containment of a pandemic
Arino, Julien
Brauer, Fred
van den Driessche, P.
Watmough, James
Wu, Jianhong
[J]. JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE, 2006, 3 (08) : 453 - 457
[3] A final size relation for epidemic models
Arino, Julien
Brauer, Fred
van den Driessche, P.
Watmough, James
Wu, Jianhong
[J]. MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING, 2007, 4 (02) : 159 - 175
[4] Balicer RD, 2005, EMERG INFECT DIS, V11, P1280
[5] Brauer F, 2006, MATH BIOSCI ENG, V3, P1
[6] Modeling the worldwide spread of pandemic influenza: Baseline case and containment interventions
Colizza, Vittoria
Barrat, Alain
Barthelemy, Marc
Valleron, Alain-Jacques
Vespignani, Alessandro
[J]. PLOS MEDICINE, 2007, 4 (01) : 95 - 110
[7] Diekmann O., 2000, Mathematical Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases: Model Building, Analysis, and Interpretation
[8] Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia
Ferguson, NM
Cummings, DAT
Cauchemez, S
Fraser, C
Riley, S
Meeyai, A
Iamsirithaworn, S
Burke, DS
[J]. NATURE, 2005, 437 (7056) : 209 - 214
[9] Gani R, 2005, EMERG INFECT DIS, V11, P1355
[10] Modelling strategies for controlling SARS outbreaks
Gumel, AB
Ruan, SG
Day, T
Watmough, J
Brauer, F
van den Driessche, P
Gabrielson, D
Bowman, C
Alexander, ME
Ardal, S
Wu, JH
Sahai, BM
[J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, 2004, 271 (1554) : 2223 - 2232

← 1 2 →