Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: A Comment

被引：129

作者：

Ciccone, Antonio ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] ICREA Univ Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona 08005, Spain

[2] Barcelona GSE, Barcelona 08005, Spain

来源：

AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-APPLIED ECONOMICS | 2011年 / 3卷 / 04期

关键词：

COMMODITY PRICES; WAR; GRIEVANCE; AFRICA; GROWTH; GREED;

D O I：

10.1257/app.3.4.215

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

Edward Miguel, Shanker Satyanath, and Ernest Sergenti (2004), henceforth MSS, argue that lower rainfall levels and negative rainfall shocks increase conflict risk in sub-Saharan Africa. This conclusion rests on their finding of a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall growth between t - 1 and t - 2. I show that this finding is driven by a (counterintuitive) positive correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t - 2. If lower rainfall levels or negative rainfall shocks increased conflict, MSS's finding should have been due to a negative correlation between conflict in t and rainfall levels in t - 1. In the latest data, conflict is unrelated to rainfall.

引用

页码：215 / 227

页数：13

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