Understanding policy in the great recession: Some unpleasant fiscal arithmetic

被引：102

作者：

Cochrane, John H. ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Chicago, Booth Sch Business, Chicago, IL 60637 USA

[2] Univ Chicago, NBER, Chicago, IL 60637 USA

来源：

EUROPEAN ECONOMIC REVIEW | 2011年 / 55卷 / 01期

关键词：

Inflation; Deflation; Fiscal theory of the price level;

D O I：

10.1016/j.euroecorev.2010.11.002

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

I use the valuation equation of government debt to understand fiscal and monetary policy in and following the great recession of 2008-2009. I also examine policy alternatives to avoid deflation, and how fiscal pressures might lead to inflation. I conclude that the central bank may be almost powerless to avoid deflation or inflation; that an eventual fiscal inflation can come well before large deficits or monetization are realized, and that it is likely to come with stagnation rather than a boom. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：2 / 30

页数：29