Treatment Failure and Mortality Factors in Patients Receiving Second-Line HIV Therapy in Resource-Limited Countries

Context Long-term antiretroviral therapy (ART) use in resource-limited countries leads to increasing numbers of patients with HIV taking second-line therapy. Limited access to further therapeutic options makes essential the evaluation of second-line regimen efficacy in these settings. Objectives To investigate failure rates in patients receiving second-line therapy and factors associated with failure and death. Design, Setting, and Participants Multicohort study of 632 patients >14 years old receiving second-line therapy for more than 6 months in 27 ART programs in Africa and Asia between January 2001 and October 2008. Main Outcome Measures Clinical, immunological, virological, and immunovirological failure (first diagnosed episode of immunological or virological failure) rates, and mortality after 6 months of second-line therapy use. Sensitivity analyses were performed using alternative CD4 cell count thresholds for immunological and immunovirological definitions of failure and for cohort attrition instead of death. Results The 632 patients provided 740.7 person-years of follow-up; 119 (18.8%) met World Health Organization failure criteria after a median 11.9 months following the start of second-line therapy (interquartile range [IQR], 8.7-17.0 months), and 34 (5.4%) died after a median 15.1 months (IQR, 11.9-25.7 months). Failure rates were lower in those who changed 2 nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) instead of 1 (179.2 vs 251.6 per 1000 person-years; incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.64; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.42-0.96), and higher in those with lowest adherence index (383.5 vs 176.0 per 1000 person-years; IRR, 3.14; 95% CI, 1.67-5.90 for <80% vs >= 95% [percentage adherent, as represented by percentage of appointments attended with no delay]). Failure rates increased with lower CD4 cell counts when second-line therapy was started, from 156.3 vs 96.2 per 1000 person-years; IRR, 1.59 (95% CI, 0.78-3.25) for 100 to 199/mu L to 336.8 per 1000 person-years; IRR, 3.32 (95% CI, 1.81-6.08) for less than 50/mu L vs 200/mu L or higher; and decreased with time using second-line therapy, from 250.0 vs 123.2 per 1000 person-years; IRR, 1.90 (95% CI, 1.19-3.02) for 6 to 11 months to 212.0 per 1000 person-years; 1.71 (95% CI, 1.01-2.88) for 12 to 17 months vs 18 or more months. Mortality for those taking second-line therapy was lower in women (32.4 vs 68.3 per 1000 person-years; hazard ratio [HR], 0.45; 95% CI, 0.23-0.91); and higher in patients with treatment failure of any type (91.9 vs 28.1 per 1000 person-years; HR, 2.83; 95% CI, 1.38-5.80). Sensitivity analyses showed similar results. Conclusions Among patients in Africa and Asia receiving second-line therapy for HIV, treatment failure was associated with low CD4 cell counts at second-line therapy start, use of suboptimal second-line regimens, and poor adherence. Mortality was associated with diagnosed treatment failure. JAMA. 2010;304(3):303-312 www.jama.com