The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China

被引：2004

作者：

Kraemer, Moritz U. G. ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Yang, Chia-Hung ^{[4
]}

Gutierrez, Bernardo ^{[1
,5
]}

Wu, Chieh-Hsi ^{[6
]}

Klein, Brennan ^{[4
]}

Pigott, David M. ^{[7
]}

du Plessis, Louis ^{[1
]}

Faria, Nuno R. ^{[1
]}

Li, Ruoran ^{[8
]}

Hanage, William P. ^{[8
]}

Brownstein, John S. ^{[2
,3
]}

Layan, Maylis ^{[9
,10
]}

Vespignani, Alessandro ^{[4
,11
]}

Tian, Huaiyu ^{[12
]}

Dye, Christopher ^{[1
]}

Pybus, Oliver G. ^{[1
,13
]}

Scarpino, Samuel V. ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford, England

[2] Harvard Univ, Harvard Med Sch, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[3] Boston Childrens Hosp, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[4] Northeastern Univ, Network Sci Inst, Boston, MA 02115 USA

[5] Univ San Francisco Quito USFQ, Sch Biol & Environm Sci, Quito, Ecuador

[6] Univ Southampton, Math Sci, Southampton, Hants, England

[7] Univ Washington, Dept Hlth Metr, Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

[8] Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth, Boston, MA USA

[9] CNRS, Inst Pasteur, UMR2000, Math Modelling Infect Dis Unit, Paris, France

[10] Sorbonne Univ, Paris, France

[11] ISI Fdn, Turin, Italy

[12] Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Global Change & Earth Syst Sci, State Key Lab Remote Sensing Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China

[13] Royal Vet Coll, Dept Pathobiol & Populat Sci, London, England

来源：

SCIENCE | 2020年 / 368卷 / 6490期

基金：

英国医学研究理事会;

关键词：

REGRESSION-MODELS; DISEASE; WUHAN;

D O I：

10.1126/science.abb4218

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

070301 [无机化学]; 070403 [天体物理学]; 070507 [自然资源与国土空间规划学]; 090105 [作物生产系统与生态工程];

摘要：

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak expanded rapidly Throughout China. Major behavioral, clinical, and state interventions were undertaken to mitigate the epidemic and prevent the persistence of the virus in human populations in China and worldwide. It remains unclear how these unprecedented interventions, including travel restrictions, affected COVID-19 spread in China. We used real-time mobility data from Wuhan and detailed case data including travel history to elucidate the role of case importation in transmission in cities across China and to ascertain the impact of control measures. Early on, the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases in China was explained well by human mobility data. After the implementation of control measures, this correlation dropped and growth rates became negative in most locations, although shifts in the demographics of reported cases were still indicative of local chains of transmission outside of Wuhan. This study shows that the drastic control measures implemented in China substantially mitigated the spread of COVID-19.

引用

页码：493 / +

页数：35

共 44 条

[1]

AI S., 2020, Epidemiology, DOI [DOI 10.1101/2020.02.04.20020339, 10.1101/2020.02.04.20020339]

[2]

[Anonymous], 2020, RES VALIDATION WORKS

[3]

Aurora Big Data, 2017, MOB MAP APP RES REP

[4]

Backer J.A., 2020, EUROSURVEILLANCE, V25, P20, DOI DOI 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.5.2000062