Climate Change, Mortality, and Adaptation: Evidence from Annual Fluctuations in Weather in the US

被引:563
作者
Deschenes, Olivier [1 ,2 ]
Greenstone, Michael [2 ,3 ,4 ]
机构
[1] Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Dept Econ, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA
[2] NBER, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA
[3] MIT, Dept Econ, Cambridge, MA 02142 USA
[4] Brookings Inst, Washington, DC 20036 USA
关键词
IMPACT;
D O I
10.1257/app.3.4.152
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
Using random year-to-year variation in temperature, we document the relationship between daily temperatures and annual mortality rates and daily temperatures and annual residential energy consumption. Both relationships exhibit nonlinearities, with significant increases at the extremes of the temperature distribution. The application of these results to "business as usual" climate predictions indicates that by the end of the century climate change will lead to increases of 3 percent in the age-adjusted mortality rate and 11 percent in annual residential energy consumption. These estimates likely overstate the long-run costs, because climate change will unfold gradually allowing individuals to engage in a wider set of adaptations.
引用
收藏
页码:152 / 185
页数:34
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