Cross-scale patterns in shrub thicket dynamics in the Virginia barrier complex

To interpret broad-scale erosion and accretion patterns and the expansion and contraction of shrub thickets in response to sea level rise for a coastal barrier system, we examined the fine-scale processes of shrub recruitment and mortality within the context of the influence of ocean current and sediment transport processes on variations in island size and location. We focused on Myrica cerifera shrub thickets, the dominant woody community on most barrier islands along the coastline of the southeastern USA. Observations suggest that M. cerifera, a salt-intolerant species, is increasing in cover throughout the Virginia barrier islands, yet rising sea level in response to climate change is increasing erosion and reducing island area. Our objective was to explain this apparent paradox using pattern-process relationships across a range of scales with a focus on ocean currents and sediment transport interacting with island characteristics at intermediate scales. Multi-decadal comparisons across scales showed a complex pattern. At the scale of the entire Virginia barrier complex, modest decreases in upland area were accompanied by large increases in shrub area. Responses were more variable for individual islands, reflecting inter-island variations in erosion and accretion due to differences in sediment transport via ocean currents. Several islands underwent dramatic shrub expansion. Only for within-island responses were there similarities in the pattern of change, with a lag-phase after initial shrub colonization followed by development of linear, closed canopy thickets. Understanding the fine-scale processes of shrub seedling establishment and thicket development, in conjunction with the influence of ocean currents and sediment transport, provides a framework for interpreting island accretion and erosion patterns and subsequent effects on shrub thicket expansion or contraction across scales of time and space.